Article by Ben Rundle, Portfolio Manager NAOS Asset Management
In conversations we have had with other investors about Moelis Australia Limited (ASX: MOE), it is common to hear the response “Corporate advisory businesses are lumpy and unpredictable”. Whilst that can sometimes be the case, it represents a fundamental misunderstanding of the earning drivers that we believe should propel Moelis forward. I recently read Blackstone founder Steve Schwarzman’s new book, titled ‘What It Takes.’ Little did I know that Blackstone was originally founded as a corporate advisory business, which used its profits to seed one of the largest alternative asset managers globally. The story sounded familiar, because in my view this is exactly the playbook for Moelis Australia.
In 2013 Moelis had zero funds under management, whereas today they have almost $5bn. Back then, the Moelis corporate advisory business generated $40m of revenue, with the asset management business contributing only $200,000 in fees. Fast forward six years to today and the asset management business has delivered $96.7m in revenue which represents compound annual growth of ~180% per annum. Contrast that to the corporate advisory business which this year has delivered $61.7m revenue and represents compound annual growth of ~7.5%.
A quick glance at the Moelis prospectus from their IPO highlights that the EBIT margin in 2014 was 7%, compared to the 38% EBIT margin they have delivered in 2019. Whilst admittedly the margin in the advisory business has improved since then, it is the asset management business that has been the big driver of that growth, as the margin is now almost double that of the advisory business.
Focusing on today’s result, there are a couple of aspects worth highlighting;
Guidance provided to the market prior to the earnings release was for $60m in EBITDA. However, the market anticipated them beating this so the final number of $63.5m was roughly in line with consensus expectations. The business in our view continues to provide an attractive long-term proposition with a cost base and a balance sheet that has been set up for growth. With the asset management business having had considerable success in its first 6 years of operations, we think this success will continue to significantly enhance the earnings quality of the business going forward.
At the time of writing this article NAOS Ex-50 Opportunities Company Limited (ASX: NAC) holds a position in Moelis Australia Limited (ASX: MOE).
Important Information: This material has been prepared by NAOS Asset Management Limited (ABN 23 107 624 126, AFSL 273529) and is provided for general information purposes only and must not be construed as investment advice. It does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Before making an investment decision, investors should consider obtaining professional investment advice that is tailored to their specific circumstances.