NAOS CEO Insights

August 29, 2025

CEO INSIGHTS – Week Ending 29 August 2025

“Whilst we are seeing a steady improvement in consumer demand and confidence, demand remains patchy outside of event windows.”

Hugh Toll, CEO, Lynch Group Ltd

ASX Reporting Season Special

Mining Services

"Sustained demand for maintenance activity continued across WA’s iron ore sector." Market Statement, Monadelphous Ltd

“There is positive market sentiment in key regions, with rising demand for near-mine and brownfields drilling; however, the downward pressures that have dampened exploration activity over the past three years persist, although they are increasingly being counterbalanced by the upward forces driving demand for metals.” Paul House, CEO, Imdex Ltd

Commodities

In mineral sands, lower levels of economic activity have weighed on customer purchasing behaviour.” Market Statement, Iluka Resources Ltd

“The long-term fundamentals for lithium remain intact. Current prices are not sufficient to incentivise new supply, which points to potential tightness ahead. While market volatility may persist in the near term.” Dale Henderson, CEO, Pilbara Minerals Ltd

Insurance

“Pleasingly, the increases in customer premiums continue to moderate as supply chain inflation eases and reinsurance markets stabilise.” Steve Johnston, CEO, Suncorp Group Ltd

“We are seeing strong resilience from that portfolio around the ability to absorb those significant premium increases.” Edward Close, CEO, nib Holdings Ltd

Corporate Activity & IPOs

“However, corporate action volumes were actually down 2% in the year. Despite a strong start, corporate action volumes dipped in 2H, but we saw some recovery in June. I do note the value of announced M&A deals was up by 11% at the end of June, so that’s a positive lead indicator for completed transactions next year.” Stuart Irving, CEO, Computershare Ltd

“New capital quoted is an important metric to measure the quality of the listings market as it takes into account delistings, new listings and secondary raisings. Net new capital quoted was $51.3 billion in the first seven months of calendar year 2025, which was driven by this new listings’ activity as well as secondary capital raisings.“ Market Statement, ASX Ltd

Banking, Lending & Foreign Exchange

“Despite uncertainty in the economic environment, the arrears ratio remained broadly stable throughout the second half of FY25...business confidence has started to improve at the beginning of FY26 and demand for credit remains robust.” Market Statement, Judo Bank Ltd

“In terms of current customer spending trends, we've seen continued growth in online marketplaces and nondiscretionary categories such as grocery and education. Our more mature customers continue to spend more than other cohorts on a relative basis, particularly in discretionary categories such as travel, entertainment and restaurants.” Cynthia Scott, CEO, Zip Co Ltd

“Political instability and the threat of tariffs drove further uncertainty later in the second half [of FY25], particularly for our target clients who buy or sell cross-border.” John Malcolm, CEO, OFX Ltd

Energy

“The level of investment, activity and change is also creating additional complexity in the energy market, affecting communities, and putting upward pressure on energy prices.” Frank Calabria, CEO, Origin Energy Ltd

Retail

“I think in a tough consumer market, we still see customers gravitate very strongly towards key promotional times of the year.” Mark Teperson, CEO, Baby Bunting Group Ltd

“We observe the youth fashion customer remains discerning and willing to spend on quality, on-trend clothing.” Alice Barbery, CEO, Universal Store Holdings Ltd  

Flowers & Families

“Whilst we are seeing a steady improvement in consumer demand and confidence, demand remains patchy outside of event windows.” Hugh Toll, CEO, Lynch Group Ltd

“The way the pipeline works in IVF is that patients making decisions 9 to 12 months ago are those who are cycling today. So, on the back of improvements in consumer sentiment, we'd assume that the industry will return to growth in the medium term.” Malik Jainudeen, Action CEO, Monash IVF Group Ltd

Industrials & Transport

“The stable services revenue was underpinned by continued demand from the growing and ageing installed base, with the average age of mining machines increasing 7% to 12.4 years. Market fundamentals remain supportive for WestTrac, with Australian commodity export volumes up 3% in FY '25. Iron ore exports are forecast to grow over the medium term, and coal volumes are expected to remain resilient. Construction activity also remains elevated with a robust outlook expected to support customer demand into FY26.” Ryan Stokes, CEO, SGH Ltd

“Turning now to the key industrial markets. So, the Industrial sector has softened for the first time in a number of years. The Transport Infrastructure and Manufacturing markets have slowed this year after 4 years of significant growth. The Marine and Cladding sectors remain reasonably solid.” Anthony Dragicevich, CEO, Capral Ltd

Media & Advertising

"From a trading perspective, the total TV ad market is stabilising with total TV tracking flat year-on-year in July and August, and we are seeing some good momentum into September, our critical AFL finals period." Jeffrey Howard, CEO, Seven West Media Ltd

“Q3 media revenue pacing is up 5% year-on-year, with August and September improving after a softer July…Out of Home is expected to continue taking revenue share from other media sectors. We expect Out of Home to grow by mid to high single digits in 2H25.” Market Statement, oOh!media Ltd

Building & Construction

“I think we have seen some stabilisation of the increases in development costs.” Steven Sewell, CEO, Abacus Storage King Ltd

“We are seeing signs of recovery in Australian construction.” Mark Vassella, CEO, BlueScope Steel Ltd

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Housing & Home Improvement

“Market conditions are expected to improve across all sectors over the next financial year, supported by lower inflation and a further easing of interest rates. We have multiple levers for future growth, supported by more favourable market conditions." Campbell Hanan, CEO, Mirvac Ltd

“Company stores' sales momentum from Q4 FY2025 has continued into the start of FY2026.” Market Statement, Beacon Lighting Group Ltd

“[We] do not expect any difference; the next six months are going to be like the last six.” Peter Wilson, CEO, Reece Group Ltd

Lotteries

“Medium participation trends remain healthy, albeit year-on-year participation reduced in response to the lower jackpots. Frequency of play was steady overall and up for registered players, indicating stronger customer engagement with that segment.” Sue van der Merwe, CEO, The Lottery Corp. Ltd

Food & Beverage

“Consumer spending in the retail liquor market remains subdued.” Market Statement, Endeavour Group Ltd

“Look, what we just observed was a softening of demand, particularly through that retail channel in the fourth quarter. I don't think anything structurally changed as it relates to customer perception of poultry or otherwise.” Edward Alexander, CEO, Inghams Group Ltd

“With demand for cans remaining strong, we continued to invest in our cans capacity expansion program, which will allow us to service expected customer demand to at least 2030.” Brian Lowe, CEO, Orora Ltd

Residential Property & Shopping Centres

“Market conditions remain healthy, with strong employment and expectations of further interest rate cuts likely to continue to support buyer demand and vendor confidence to list." Market Statement, REA Group Ltd

“Naturally, COVID sparked a resetting of rents, but what's more important is that sales productivity has continued to grow and occupancy rates are now incredibly tight. Consequently, headroom exists for sustained rental growth.” Peter Huddle, CEO, Vicinity Centres

Office Market & Employment

“I think development in offices is still challenged just on the basic economics of construction costs. That being said, I think what we have been pleased with the upside of this bifurcation that we're seeing in the market, for the very good projects in that very tight part of any given market, clients and customers are prepared to pay pretty much record rents.” Ross Du Vernet, CEO, Dexus Ltd

“In the near term, while labour market conditions across APAC are showing signs of stabilisation, our planning assumption is for employment growth to remain flat to low through FY2026. In Australia, we expect unemployment to grow slightly, though a further easing of interest rates should gradually lead to labour market improvements." Ian Narev, CEO, SEEK Ltd

Auto

“Improving new vehicle market conditions expected to continue.” Market Statement, Autosports Group Ltd

“The new car market is expected to remain highly competitive with new brands competing for market share.” Market Statement, Peter Warren Automotive Holdings Ltd

Supply Chain & Logistics

“The outlook across our key markets for next year is generally favourable. In containers, market growth is expected to be in line with GDP…The outlook for agri and our grain exports is very positive with a strong harvest forecast…In automotive, we expect to see steady automotive import volumes.” Paul Digney, CEO, Qube Holdings Ltd

“During the year, we saw a return to more normalised pallet market dynamics following inventory optimisation initiatives undertaken by retailers and manufacturers during FY24.” Graham Chipchase, CEO, Brambles Ltd

Technology Spending

“The barriers to entry on this data center program around the world for everyone, the barriers to entry are getting higher. Things are more expensive. They're taking longer. And effectively, if you don't have it well capitalised, you can't proceed to move forward.” Greg Goodman, CEO, Goodman Group Ltd

“Certain areas, there is still a little bit of uncertainty, uncertainty predominantly in small business.” Vlad Mitnovetski, COO, Dicker Data Ltd

Travel

“Strong forward bookings for the remainder of the 2025 calendar year and well into 2026. Air bookings for departure in FY26, up 11% pcp.” Market Statement, Helloworld Travel Ltd

“The Group expects ongoing strong travel demand into 1H26.” Market Statement, Qantas Airways Ltd

Healthcare

“End market conditions are expected to be mixed, with solid healthcare demand offset by subdued demand in some industrial verticals.” Market Statement, Ansell Ltd

“Inflationary pressures remain a constant issue, with labour costs running at almost half of pathology revenues.” Market Statement, Healius Ltd

Education & Students

“Continued challenging industry conditions, planning for FY26 market volumes, down 20-30% versus FY25” Market Statement, IDP Education Ltd

Hospitality

“While early in the year, we’re encouraged by the positive trends we are seeing in our payment volumes.” Jon Davey, CEO, Tyro Ltd

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